In this research paper by Syed Kamall, the prospects for global trade in the wake of the pandemic are analyzed. The World Trade Organization’s predictions of a significant drop in trade volumes due to COVID-19 are discussed, along with the historical recovery patterns observed after the 2008 financial crisis.
Kamall highlights pre-existing factors such as trade tensions, concerns over the Chinese government, technological advancements, and environmental issues that could further impact global trade. The potential consequences of the UK’s departure from the EU and protectionist sentiments are explored.
The paper emphasizes the fragility of global supply chains exposed by the current economic slowdown and their implications for trading with China. While the expectation is that global trade will rebound in 2021, Kamall acknowledges uncertainties regarding the nature and extent of the recovery, offering insights into the factors that will shape this outcome.
Read the research paper here.
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